Schumacher – on the brink

Michael Schumacher returned to Formula One in 2010, to great fanfare and expectation. Thus far, he has disappointed himself and his legions of fans. But his fortunes could be changing.

The primary reason for Schumacher’s lack of success since returning to the sport is the car. The 2010 Mercedes was off the pace. The 2011 car was quick in testing, but turned out to be slow during the season. In a sport as competitive as Formula One, a slow car makes victory all but impossible.

The 2012 Mercedes is something of a revelation. In pre-season testing, the car looked quick. Qualifying for the season-opening Australian Grand Prix showed good one-lap pace, as Schumacher qualified fourth. In Malaysia, he was third on the grid, and China saw Nico Rosberg leading the first all-Mercedes front row since the return of the Silver Arrows to Formula One.

Despite the car’s proven qualifying pace, there was a lingering concern that the W03 might not be able to look after its tyres in race conditions. Rosberg showed in resounding fashion that the car can be quick over a race distance and can manage tyre wear well, by comfortably winning the Chinese Grand Prix.

So the car is quick. In qualifying and race conditions. The team has proven it can put together a victorious race weekend. Schumacher has shown his pace in qualifying, and there is little doubt that he has the race pace to succeed. Unless Mercedes’ performance in China turns out to be a one-off, the product of perfect track conditions and set-up, Schumacher’s return to the top cannot be far away.